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ABIDE-branded infographic titled “Base Rate Fallacy in Leadership: When Stories Lie to Us.” A balance scale compares a vivid leadership story with data, showing how stories can feel persuasive while base rates, probabilities, patterns, and long-term outcomes keep decisions grounded.

ABIDE-branded infographic titled “Base Rate Fallacy in Leadership: When Stories Lie to Us.” A balance scale compares a vivid leadership story with data, showing how stories can feel persuasive while base rates, probabilities, patterns, and long-term outcomes keep decisions grounded.

Base Rate Fallacy in Leadership: When Stories Lie to Us

Why your most compelling story may be your worst data point. How base rate neglect destroys leadership decisions — and four ways to fix it.

Cognitive Bias Awareness

Joseph Conway

7 min read

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